da optimistic space time continuum
now we become hope, destroyer of bad vibes.
THIS IS AN ARTICLE ABOUT SPACE INTERSPERSED WITH THOUGHTS ABOUT OPTIMISM AND ALSO LITTLE SENTENCES THAT I FOUND INTERESTING TO WRITE.
CONTINUE WITH CAUTION, CONTINUE WITH PIZZAZZ, but if you DARE to continue with APLOMB, only the Lord can help you and your industrial complex.
subtitle: this is my shark tank pitch to young people who think to themselves “what should i do with my life?”
the answer is to work in space.
anyways the title-title of this section is…
THE SPACE ECONOMY
Alright, so the space thing is something that you and I should be paying attention to right now. The next 50 years are primed to see gigantic leaps in space technology on Earth, which means many, many fortunes shall go boom and bust. As a purveyor of things that can boom and a researcher of things that previously went bust, the idea of space tech driving a new vertical of our economy is super interesting.
With the move to space the industries of manufacturing, commodities, tourism, and government will be radically changed and there is a ton of opportunity here for industrious entrepreneurs to come up with wild, wild ideas.
Space Manufacturing on Earth: So the big thing to work on here is reusability. The shift from public to private sector space manufacturing (essentially NASA to SpaceX) over the last 20 years led to a significant reduction in the cost of manufacturing rockets and launching payloads into space. For example, SpaceX's reusable rocket technology has reduced launch costs to around $2,720 per kilogram, a steep drop from the $18,500 per kilogram cost in the early 2000s. Creating infra that can be sent to space and back is going to be massive as we start building places in space (like places to live) and as we start building things in space (like rockets to send further into the galaxy), we’ll have to start shipping things to space (like food to sustain those buildings and rockets).
Space Commodities in Space: The concept of asteroid mining, as pursued by companies like Karman+ and AstroForge, opens up possibilities for resource acquisition on an almost unfathomable scale, potentially revolutionizing industries on Earth and beyond. There are tons, and I mean literal tons, of gold, iron ore, nickel, and other minerals floating around space in the form of asteroids and floating debris. Figuring out how to harness those minerals, break them into usable commodities, and then transition them into actual materials (through manufacturing) is something that will happen in the next 100 years. Of course, this will have a really weird impact on mineral prices on Earth, as things that used to be super scarce in an earthbound context like gold may turn out to be plentiful in a galactic perspective.
Tourism and Housing in Space: I see space as the next great Disneyland that transitions to the next great beach town. Companies like Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic are already turning vacationing to space into a reality. This isn't just about joyrides for the rich and famous; it's about opening a new realm of human experience, a sector in the economy where weightlessness is the luxury product. Blue Origin, though trailing SpaceX in some aspects, also has a focus on reusable rockets like the New Shepard and New Glenn, which is a testament to this long-term goal of populating space with habitable spaceships (a vision a bit different from Elon and Mars). I envision this starting with only rich people housing, but expanding to more salient use-cases like homes for manufacturing workers and stuff like that. As space manufacturing grows, so will the tourism and housing industries, hopefully to the point where it becomes normal to live and work in space (this feels like a 75 year thing though).
Governments on Earth and Space: Governments love space and have always loved space and have always competed in space (space race) and have even collaborated in space (ISS). This trend will only accelerate -- see, US x Space Force and the Lunar Gateway project (which involves multiple space agencies and serves as a model for future international collaboration in establishing and maintaining space colonies), the UAE's Mars mission, and the growing ambitions of countries like India and Japan exemplify the globalization of space. This isn't just about a few dominant players anymore; it's about a worldwide race, where each participant adds to the collective knowledge, technology, and economic fabric of space exploration. In addition to racing to space for from a rocket standpoint, the idea of extending and colonizing other planets or creating space cities is fascinating to me -- how will a country like the US treat space from an imperialism standpoint? Will Manifest Destiny occur again, but this time in the stars? I don’t know, but someone is going to make a lot of money because governments are going to spend a shit ton (probably literal). And I haven’t even really mentioned the defense aspect of space, from satellites and battleships and lasers and all that stuff -- the space defense race is going to be crazy.
God, writing this all out has me so excited. The growth of the space industry and its potential is almost mind-numbing -- I mean I’ve gotten this far and there are so many other players I haven’t mentioned yet, like Starlink, Varda, and Rocket Lab, which each democratize a slice of the space economy. In general, the global space economy is projected to pessimistically grow to over $1 trillion by 2040, according to Morgan Stanley. Though Goldman says $3 trillion by 2030 and China expects $10 trillion in per year in returns in 2050. (google it, i forgot to cite sources).
And while those numbers are cool and number go up is fun, I think the best thing about space is that is has the chance to bring meaning to a generation kind of floating on earth without much to do.
Millennials and GenZ are kind of wasting away in fake email jobs, somewhat listless in an economy that is not quite online enough for us to be completely useful. I’m personally super excited about space as a place for myself, my friends, and my children to find jobs that mean something. While finance and real estate and tech and literature and biology and stuff kind of feels like areas where most things have been figured out, space is the exact opposite -- nothing is figured out, it’s all in inning one.
Working in space is like getting to relive every American boy’s dream of Manifest Destiny (yes, this is probably something I should cut because I could be canceled for being culturally insensitive, but, cmon, we all want to Manifest That Destiny, it’s such a good meme).
Maybe it’s a better analogy to say that working in space is like working in transportation during the industrial revolution -- when it was a damn good time to be putting down rail roads, running shipping lanes, and building factories. I think space offers up a similarly fantastic opportunity for anyone bold enough to take it! And, AND, it’s an industry that is so new and weird that nobody is trying that hard to take the entry level jobs, so, young people, GO WORK IN SPACE BEFORE THE NERDS ARIVE EN MASSE!
space space space, go find your place.
dilly and dally; hither don’t thither.
enter the world, sprint: run your race.
*
space space space, one life to chase.
teeter and todder; willy don’t nilly.
search for love, fall: never save face.
A BOLD PROCLAMATION
When I look at the world, I see massive potential for abundance. I see a bright future, full of happiness and hope.
I believe the world will be a better place in 50 years than it is now.
I think that my children’s children will live a life that greatly surpasses the highs my brief appearance on this earth reaches. I say that it’s time to spite the modern superior complex and admit that we are but on the precipice of the existence of humanity.
I feel it, the majesty of tomorrow’s tomorrow.
We live just before the AI Age, just before the Manifest Destiny of Space, just before the Crypto Economy, just before Life Extension Normalizes, just before the Age of Seaflooding and Controlled Atmospheres.
What a world to live in! To be here on the edge of next.
“The story of his life had been like a summary written to damn greatness by showing the price one pays for it.”
- Ayn Rand (Atas Shrugged)
HUMANITY IS THE SCOURGE OF THE EARTH, WHICH ONLY MEANS WE ARE NOT TRYING HARD ENOUGH.
shoot for the stars and land on the moon, they say. whoever they are. if we do this thing correctly…
HUMANITY SHALL BE THE SCOURGE OF SPACE.
The idea of humanity surviving the desolation of Earth is more likely than not (unless you are a complete glass-is-half-empty type person) -- which means that other planets or habitats will need to be created and that it is a necessary long-term goal to start searching for such solutions right this second.
This process involves not just finding habitable planets but also developing the technology for interstellar travel and terraforming the place once it is found. On the technology side, projects like Breakthrough Starshot, which aims to send tiny, light-propelled spacecraft to our nearest star system, Alpha Centauri, represent initial steps towards interstellar exploration. I’m not as interested in that, yet, mostly because it requires far more brain cells than I own. Hard math, ew.
However, I’m much more interested on the habitation side, as there are a few places that are already looking promising, as outlined in Owen Lewis’ “Leaving the Cradle” and I can understand that far easier (look, water, yay!).
Here are a few places I’m particularly interested in:
The Moon: NASA's Artemis program's ambition to establish a sustainable presence on the Moon by 2024 is as strategic as it is symbolic, serving as a testing ground for technologies and living conditions pertinent to Mars and beyond. As our nearest celestial neighbor, it offers relatively easy access, known water ice resources, and a familiar celestial environment for establishing initial human colonies.
Mars: With its Earth-like day/night cycle, potential for terraforming, and significant natural resources, Mars presents a feasible option for large-scale human colonization and long-term habitation.
Titan (Saturn’s Moon): Titan's thick atmosphere offers protection from radiation, and its abundant hydrocarbon lakes and presence of water ice make it a unique candidate for establishing human outposts, despite its greater distance from Earth. The interest in moons like Titan extends present not just opportunities for colonization but also for scientific discovery, particularly in astrobiology, as Titan's unique atmospheric and surface conditions, opens up new chapters in our understanding of the universe.
O'Neill Space Colonies: Large, self-sustaining space habitats situated in Earth's orbit or at Lagrange points, offering controlled environments and the potential to house large populations, independent of planetary bodies.
Overall, our growing understanding of space environments is more encouraging than ever. For example, the discovery of water ice in permanently shadowed lunar craters and the identification of subterranean water reserves on Mars are game-changers. These resources are crucial for in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), significantly reducing the need to transport resources from Earth.
On top of that, we are getting to the point where humanity actually has experience in space (with it being roughly 75 years since our first moon landing). For example, the International Space Station has been continuously inhabited for over 20 years, providing invaluable data on long-term human life in space. During that time, the frequency of space missions, both manned and unmanned, is increasing year-over-year. NASA alone has planned over 30 missions in the 2020s, including the Artemis lunar missions and Mars Sample Return (already mentioned). Each mission contributes valuable data and experience, steadily paving the way for extended human presence in space. In additiona, emerging technologies, such as AI-driven life support systems capable of recycling water and air almost indefinitely, and advances in hydroponic and aeroponic agriculture, are key to sustaining life in space habitats. Companies like Bigelow Aerospace are developing expandable space habitat modules, which could be the building blocks of future lunar bases or Mars colonies.
Also, as I mentioned in the first section, as the manufacturing capabilities of the space economy increase (via reusability and utilizing space minerals), the idea of creating floating space cities near Earth should become less scary -- and once we figure out how to create micro space cities in near proximity to Earth, then we can figure out how to move them out and get those O’Neil concepts really firing up.
I really think that connecting these dots - from the exponential pace of technological advancement and increasing mission frequency, to the evolution of life-support technologies, the burgeoning global investment in space, and the scientific discoveries that make certain celestial bodies more hospitable - we see a clear, optimistic trajectory towards the colonization of space in my lifetime. I think that someone reading this piece before 2030 will likely live in space before they die. The 2000s century could very well witness humanity's most giant leap, establishing sustainable settlements beyond Earth, not as a sci-fi dream, but as a realistic extension of our civilization. And this is so exciting. As someone who has figured out that travel is fun and new things are good, I can’t think of a more intoxicating, more interesting adventure than journeying out to space and trying to live there. Maybe that makes me crazy, lol.
FOUR (4) theses (inspired by theseus)
1.
The politician is a conduit of memes.
Memes are supposed to be funny.
Can we make politics cool again?
2.
Anything is possible with AI.
So let’s focus on abundance.
How can we make more with less?
3.
Finance is only recreated every eon or so.
And the tools for revolution are ready.
Are you ready to decentralize?
4.
Algorithms shape our lives.
The algorithms are scary.
Do they have to be?
joy rides and weekdays are not mutually exclusive. you have to remember that, sometimes (but not all the time.)
- kram, on a Wednesday
sometimes i am scared of musk.
then i put on deodorant.
and realize that fear is not the right thing to feel.
instead, i should think about these few questions and think about them a lot.
anyways.
THE TITLE OF THIS SECTION IS…
IDEAS I WANT TO EXPLORE
There are so many things that I don’t know. It can almost be too easy to be caught up in the fun of space and, therefore, forget about all the crazy ramifications that come with space and expoloration and colonization and new technologies.
Here are a few big ideas that kinda sorta scare me a bit (though do not hurt my optimism at all):
The Cosmic Great Man Theory
Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are the "Great Men" of the cosmos. Their approaches, diverging in ambition and scope, though somewhat similarly in a directional sense, will be a guiding post for space policy, ethics, economics, and society. They have the best chance of being the Founding Fathers of Space (sorry for all the ‘Merica references today, geez). Whether SpaceX's Mars colonization ambitions or Blue Origin's vision of space habitats either fail or succeed will literally determine how and why humanity changes over the next 200 years -- this is a massive amount of influence that only two people have! The ramifications of the great man theory here are crazy and they scare me (but also kinda excite me because both of Bezos and Musk seem pretty smart (smarter than our governments, at least)).
Governance Beyond Earth
As us humans start our extraterrestrial existence, the governance of these new worlds becomes a pressing issue. Based on Google, there is an existing Outer Space Treaty that provides a skeletal framework for how space colonization will go, but the document is so bare bones and has so little firepower behind it that I doubt it will survive many more years. I find the governance thing with space pretty scary -- how will colonies be governed? what government styles will carry over to space (communism feels like an easy sell in resource-minimized ecosystems)? what countries will claim what planets? what new forms of policy will we have to come up with to deal with relativity across nations that span multiple planets? This is some uncharted territory and it’s kind of scary -- though also really cool. I think of it in a similar manner to crypto, which speedruns all of finance really fast all the time. I think space governments will have a fun time recreating governments and policy issues quickly -- with hopefully faster iteration processes than we have seen in the past (meaning hundreds of years to decide whether a political system is good might be decreased to 10s of years or months as many, many space colonies try out weird methods of government in a short period, giving each other real-time feedback loops and such).
Oh, Goodness, Like, um, Biology
Call me crazy, but space’s impact on human biology HAS to open up a Pandora's box of evolutionary possibilities. Like, long-term exposure to microgravity and extraterrestrial environments poses profound physiological challenges and opportunities for us normal people. Could we witness a new branch of humanity uniquely adapted to life in space? What will living on Mars do to our lungs? Can someone claustrophobic live in a space habitat? Is space food good for testosterone? I have so many questions and have not read into the answers, but also feel like we won’t know the implications until we have a few generations living among the stars.
Are Humans Still Humans When Humans Be Not On Earth? (Also, Aliens)
The definition of an alien is a “being from another world” and if someone is born on Mars that makes them an alien to Earth even if they are still human and when does the line for being a human end and where does it start? That’s my ramble. To be a bit more succinct, I would say the societal implications of space colonization are profound and far-reaching and philosophical. For example, will the shared endeavor of space exploration foster a unified human identity, or will the isolation of colonies lead to distinct, perhaps divergent, human cultures? The societal evolution in space could mirror the transformative impacts of Earth's historical revolutions, leading to a future where "humanity" encompasses a diverse array of cultures, each molded by their celestial homes. Or it could get really fucked up and Mars Humans sort of branch off and try to kill us, or vice versa.
Also, while I’m here. What do we do about aliens and the three-body problem? There is no way in hell that we are the most advanced or the first civilization out here in the cosmos. Statistically, it just feels wrong -- which means the only reason we haven’t been found is that we humans have been around for such a short period and that we have only inhabited such a small corner of the universe. As we expand our reach through colonization, extend our lives past that of the sun, and so on and so forth, there is like a 100% possibility we meet aliens. What in tarnation do we do there? Is it a moment of death for us? For aliens? Can we live with a similarly high-level thinking organism in proximity? Crazy to think about -- as an optimist, I think aliens will be net positive for us (new technology, new entities to sell things to, new ideas, new art, etc), but it could also get fucked really fast (and I don’t think Earth is so well organized or advanced to really put up a good fight against aliens).
The AI Conundrum
Maybe I’ve read too much Asimov, but the AI thing makes me believe that one of the reasons we need to leave Earth ASAP is that AI will become our overlord pretty quickly (cuz I don’t believe his silly rules will actually stop robots from eating us) or that AI will force humanity to merge with it and become a single entity like Gaia and I’m just not quite ready for that. But also, I think for space travel and living to really be possible, we’re going to need advanced AI and robots to help us live, navigate, and manufacture things, so maybe Asimov’s rules will work and it will be great. In my opinion, most of life in space (oxygen, housing, water) will need to be fabricated and abstracted away from the actual human, and AI is our best bet in doing that abstraction.
a note about optimism in general:
the world needs more of it. i’m starting 2024 as an optimist, and a shameless one. i think the world is a good place full of wonder and i think the world will be a gooder place full of more wonders in the future.
oscar wilde once said that
“we are all in the gutter.”
but that wasn’t the end of the sentence.
the end of the sentence admitted that
“some of us are looking at the stars.”
on space optimism
and on reading more (sci-fi and space stuff)
I view space as a limitless place for exploration, where abundance runs almost infinite in comparison to the finite resources granted to our current living situation sitting 3rd from the Sun. It’s a blank canvas for humanity to paint, to populate. What was our forefather’s boundary is our playing field and will most likely be our children’s home. I envision the Moon as a potential vacation destination for mid-50s Kram and Mars as the inevitable resting place for my offspring’s offspring’s offspring. A spaceship is something I would rather save up for than a car or a home at this point -- what with single-person car ownership a ripe model to disrupt through AI driven cars and a home feeling like a generational relic of a world where static, nuclear-family living was the norm, not the exception.
2022 and 2023 included a sci-fi reading streak that was a bit out of the ordinary for my historically fantasy-loving self. I inhaled a more than a few space odyssey’s, including the CCP’s alien propaganda series, Three Body Problem, a collection of short space stories penned by the magnamious George RR Martin in Tuf Voyaging, the ultimate analysis of a marriage between extraterrestrial living and artificial intelligence that is The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress, a 10,000 year robotic thesis Asimov laid out through The Foundation series, and a rollicking space adventure named Project Hail Mary written by the ever-viral Andy Weir. I also read up a bit on why I might be so intrigued by sci-fi. For example, I like telling good stories, I’m optimistic about technology, and I find new ideas intriguing. On top of genuine sci-fi, I also read a little bit about space in general through my quasi-obsession with Wait But Why and Not Boring -- blogs that cover stuff like the space/biotech company Varda, the burgeoning economy of space, how Elon is using SpaceX to settle Mars, the magic of the Fermi Paradox, amongst other things. Of course, in my previous years, I’ve also wandered the Cosmere, travelled to Arrakis, and experienced Ender fight the buggers, as any adventurous young man might do at his local library in middle and high school.
And I think this content consumption has helped me in creating an optimistic outlook on space.
Cuz somewhere between the vivid imaginations of Asimov's sprawling galactic empires and the gritty realism of Heinlein's lunar colonies, somewhere between the tactical ingenuity of Ender's Game and the cosmic intrigue of the Three-Body Problem, somewhere between the new brand of techno-optimism preached by the weirdos like online and the ultimate doomerism slammed into your brain by algorithms, is a future that will exist.
I choose to believe in an optimistic one, where space is a good thing for society and that things will be better and more fun and more adventurous and more real and more lasting than they previously were.
I imagine a world where space is not a distant, cold vacuum, but a vibrant piece of art built on the shoulders of brave human endeavor and resilience and ingenuity. The space economy is beckoning to us to partake in an industrial revolution not bound by Earth's gravity and resources.
Let’s manufacture rockets and navigate asteroid fields and colonize Mars! Let’s be dreamers again and make taking a trip to space as commonplace as hopping on a plane. Gosh, the Moon, Mars, and even the far-off moons of Saturn -- these are not pipe dreams, they are real possibilities! I swear! The data says so, the images hint, the investors bet! And these aren't just new lands; they are the new frontiers of human experience, potential cradles for civilizations that could one day look back at Earth as a distant ancestor, something that is only described in a history book, something about a homeland consumed by an exploding star! And while we’re at it, fuck it, let’s make crypto the backbone of this endeavor, because crypto is a fair, unopinonated technology -- the perfect thing to allow for open commerce and communication amongst planets. Godammit, yes.
And beyond the economic, technological, and biological transformations lies something even more profound - the evolution of human society itself. We’re going to change -- and change is good! Even if usually painful. And space colonization will challenge and reshape our concepts of governance, community, and identity for the better (though there will obviously be some rough spots) and I think it will be beautiful. We are not just expanding our physical horizons; we are redefining what it means to be human and we get to do so in our lifetimes! Right now, in fact! Isn’t that crazy! Will we see the birth of new cultures, philosophies, and social structures in our lifetimes on Earth? Meh? In the stars? I say of course.
My optimism is a glass brimming to half-fullness. Optimism sees space not as a void, but a canvas. A canvas where our boldest dreams, fueled by some sci-fi dreams of Asimov, Heinlein, and Card, may be painted in the brightest of colors, in the most intoxicating combinations, and come to pass rather quickly thanks to some cosmic (with the potential for tragic) men like Musk and Bezos and all the entrepreneurs budding.
How fun the future might be. I am excited about space because it represents the ultimate adventure, a narrative that we are writing with every rocket launch, every satellite, and every dream of stepping onto another world. It's a narrative of hope, resilience, and endless possibility. It's the next grand chapter in the human saga, and we are its authors.
The cosmos beckons, not with a cold whisper, but with a resounding call to adventure, to discovery, and to the shaping of a future as boundless as the stars themselves.
So let’s be optimistic in 2024. Let’s go to space. Let’s be excited about the future. And let’s shape that future into something that is worth being optimistic about.
— kram
2024: the year Kram uses “!” for the first time. And a lot of times after that